One question we've been getting more and more lately is: Are we going to have a recession this year? Questions like this never have certain answers, but the unfortunate truth is that the odds of a recession in the next year are the highest they've been in over a decade. Our economy faces many major difficulties right now: inflation and tightening monetary policy to fight it; the Russia/Ukraine war and the sanctions in response; COVID-19 and the lockdowns it has spurred in China. Another challenge is the post-pandemic adjustment. Many companies that flew high during the pandemic are coming back to earth as spending patterns shift back towards pre-pandemic norms. The net is a difficult economic situation.
One silver lining is that a recession in the next year is not likely to be huge. Unlike the Great Recession where significant elements of the global financial system risked collapse, the next recession will likely center on adjustment as businesses and consumers drawdown spending and readjust to an economic reality that is modestly worse than expected.