The latest Pro AV Business Index numbers are in and the news, well, it's not great. Our industry is still growing, but the AV Sales Index (AVI-S) underwent a major deceleration in November. It dropped from 65.1 in October to 57.0 in this month. To be clear, 57 is still comfortably above the no-net change line, indicating that our industry continued to grow in November. But we've moved from a number that indicates fast growth compared to historic norms to one that indicates slow growth compared to historic norms.
The likely cause was economic weakness. For months, we've underscored recession risks, citing the 4th quarter of 2022 as a likely start time. This AV observation may reflect that weakness. That said, it may also reflect noise. Normally, such a big swing is rare, and usually reflective of a bit of chance rather than true underlying trend. To be sure, we expect December to measure below the October score, but there's a good chance it is above the November score--even if the economy softens a bit further. Either way, much rides on next month's score to determine how much pro AV growth has downshifted. Here's hoping for good news!
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