Positive Trend in Inflation?

Positive Trend in Inflation?
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Pro AV's primary threat right now is the macroeconomy: If a recession hits, it will slow (though hopefully not stop) revenue growth. And primary source of that recession risk is inflation and the interest rate hikes central banks make in response. That's why the US November CPI inflation report is such good news.

According to this latest report, inflation cooled from a year-on-year 7.7% in October to 7.1% in November. The month-to-month change was even better, as prices overall increased 0.1% and core inflation increased 0.2%. Both rates are right in line with the Fed's annual target of 2% inflation. Part of what makes this such excellent news is that it's a signal of a trend: October was a great month, but it was one month. You can't say you've turned a corner from one datapoint! Two datapoints isn't the end of the conversation, but it's a lot more than just one. 

Going forward, look for European inflation to also show an easing trend for November and for the December numbers to continue this budding trend. In addition, watch for Fed movement on interest rates, especially planned future increases. To the extent this softens their plans, it will help the overall macroeconomic environment and secure the greatest possible 2023 growth for pro AV.

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